New Zealand is poised to enter the regulated online casino market, with the government projecting annual revenues of NZ$500 million (US$300.8 million) once the sector launches in 2026. However, industry experts suggest this figure might be conservative, pointing to a potentially larger market opportunity.
Government Projections vs. Industry Estimates
Jarrod True, a gambling lawyer from True Legal, shared insights with iGB about the government’s plans and industry expectations:
- Government projection: NZ$500 million annual revenue
- Industry estimate: Closer to NZ$900 million, according to existing monopolies Tab NZ and Lotto NZ
True explained the discrepancy: “Online gambling is very, very popular in New Zealand and we saw a massive explosion with Covid-19 and our physical venues locked down. That’s really continued [since].”
Regulatory Framework and Timeline
The New Zealand government plans to regulate online casinos by 2026, with several key features:
- Limited number of licenses to be granted through an auction
- Draft legislation to be released later in 2024
- Public consultation planned for 2025
- Implementation targeted for early 2026
True noted the significance of the 2026 launch date, which coincides with a general election year: “As far as saying it will be in place by early 2026, that is effectively prioritising the legislation.”
Key Regulatory Aspects
While details are still emerging, some regulatory aspects have been outlined:
- Advertising will be “strictly limited”
- Online casino products may not be offered alongside sports betting or lottery
- A ban on gambling sponsorships has been proposed
True described the sponsorship ban as “very left field,” adding, “Clearly someone in cabinet had a bee in their bonnet about that and decided this was going to be their mark on the legislation.”
Industry Positioning and Concerns
Several industry players are already positioning themselves for the regulated market:
- SkyCity Entertainment Group and Skyline Entertainment have launched Malta-licensed casinos
- SkyCity operates a white label site through Gaming Innovation Group
- Skyline’s ChristchurchCasino.com is powered by White Hat Gaming
True speculated that land-based incumbents might have lobbied for limited online licenses to secure larger market shares. However, he also noted that this approach might be reconsidered: “Although the government will make a little bit of money out of an auction, I think it’s very shortsighted.”
International Input and Future Considerations
The New Zealand government is seeking input from international stakeholders to gain insights into other regulatory frameworks. True suggested that the limited license policy could potentially be scrapped later in the legislative process, as stakeholders are likely to protest during the public consultation period.
As New Zealand moves forward with its plans to regulate online gambling, the balance between market opportunity, consumer protection, and industry interests will be crucial in shaping the final regulatory framework.